It is the change to these transitions, such as the average date of first frost, that are an important key to understanding a changing climate.  Even small changes can have a large effect on migrating birds.  The date of first or last frost can prompt birds to begin their flight patterns either too early or too late, which puts their survival at risk.  The Ruby-throated Hummingbird (Archilochus colubris), for example, may be prompted to migrate later due to temperatures remaining warm late into autumn.  However, as they migrate, they may encounter colder weather due to a transitioning Arctic weather system.  If they left their summering location at their normal time, they would avoid these extreme weather events.  You can see the normal migration pattern of the Ruby-throated Hummingbird in the map below.

Image from Journey North, depicting the migratory route of the Ruby-throated Hummingbird. Finish is their wintering location in Costa Rica

This idea is further supported in the following map, which was produced by the Audubon Society and NOAA which shows that migrating birds are spending their winters farther north due to warming temperatures.  The light blue dots symbolize the general location each species wintered in 1966-1967. The dark blue dots connected by the line represent where the species wintered in 2005-2006.

Map showing changes in wintering location for various bird species from 1966-67 to 2005-06. From Audubon Society and NOAA

In some cases, these birds are more than 650 km from their 1966-1967 wintering location.  In addition to putting the birds in the path of transitioning weather patterns, dramatic shifts like these can upset the delicate balance of local ecosystems; insects and plants that these birds naturally prey on may quickly become over-populated if the migrating birds are wintering elsewhere. An example of this can be seen in the Elementary GLOBE book, “The Mystery of the Missing Hummingbirds.”

As we venture further into autumn in the Northern Hemisphere and spring in the Southern Hemisphere, it is important to keep an eye to our GLOBE instruments to monitor the changes that are affecting not only birds, but plants and other creatures that rely on weather changes for their survival.

You, as a GLOBE student, are given a unique opportunity to collect and submit data that can be used to study the transition seasons.  Students in the Kingdom of Bahrain are already examining this change in order to understand how the birds are adapting to their changing climate.   Be sure to start performing basic protocols, such as air temperature, precipitation and soil temperature, and add in other phenological protocols, such as Ruby-throated Hummingbird observations, arctic bird migration and green up or green down, to monitor these important transition season events.  And be sure to let us know about your research as it develops. These activities also help students understand the Next Generation Science Standards of Crosscutting Concepts, such as “Cause and Effect” and “Systems and System Models,” found in the progression of Earth Systems Science.

The following image is a look at each December’s monthly average temperature, beginning in 1995.  The black line represents the temperature trend over the seventeen years that this school has collected data – an estimated increase of .1601°C over the 17 year period.

A timeseries showing December monthly temperatures from 1995-2011 for Zakladni Skola – Ekolog. Praktikum in Jicin, Czech Republic;
All data is GLOBE student collected data.

Using this knowledge, and setting the base 10 year reference period of 1998-2007, it is easy to calculate the short-term average for this station to determine the departure from that average.  The average temperature for December is 0.211°C.  This average is easy to calculate.  First, you calculate the average daily temperature by averaging the observed maximum and minimum temperatures.  Then, you average the daily average temperatures together to obtain the average temperature for the month of December.  Once you’ve done that for each of the Decembers from 1998-2007, you can average those together to get your average December temperature.  From here you can examine how each December departs from that average, and put it into graphical format, like below.

Departure from 10 year (1998-2007) average December temperature for Zakladni Skola – Ekolog. Praktikum in Jicin, Czech Republic; All data is GLOBE student collected data

Notice that at the beginning of the time period the occurrence of below normal temperatures was more common.  As time progressed, temperatures became more above normal, which supports the trend in monthly temperature.  Globally, the month of December 2011 was the 322^nd consecutive month where global average temperature was above the 20^th century normal – the last month that was below normal across the globe was February 1985.

Another school, Primarschule Neufeld in Thun, Bern Switzerland, has been collecting atmosphere data since 1998.  The graph below shows the monthly average temperature for each December since 1998, which indicates a positive temperature trend of 0.088°C over the entire time period.

A timeseries showing December monthly temperatures from 1998-2012 for Primarschule Neufeld in Thun, Bern Switzerland;
All data is GLOBE student collected data

Using the same base 10 year reference period of 1998-2007 as we did for the school from the Czech Republic, it is found that the average temperature for December for the school in Switzerland is 1.101°C.

Departure from the 10 year (1998-2007) average December temperature for Primarschule Neufeld in Thun, Bern Switzerland; All data is GLOBE student collected data.

It is very important, as a member of the GLOBE community, to continue building this observational record for your site.  Every data point is important in describing the bigger picture.

Suggested activity: Over the next 12 years, GLOBE students will collect enough data to be able to examine long-term changes in variables such as air temperature.  However, you can start examining your data, or data of a nearby school now.  You can even examine the data from these two schools to look at the trends for June.  What do you think you will find? We’d love to hear from you.  Leave us a comment, send us an email or get in touch on our Facebook Page.

When people think of life in the seas, it is often the majestic that comes to mind, such aswhales, sharks, rays and coral reefs, or our own sustenance in the form of the fish that feed billions of us around the world.  Rarely do we think of plankton, the tiny organisms found across the world’s oceans. Plankton are comprised of two general types: phytoplankton, which are microscopic plant-like cells, and zooplankton, the tiny animals that graze the phytoplankton (there are, however, some plankton that can reach nearly 2 m wide and weigh more than 200 kg, such as the Nemopilema nomurai, or the Nomura jellyfish)  Despite their size, these small life forms are enormously important for the planet in several ways.  First, they are the foundation of the marine food web as they provide 50% of the oxygen we breathe. Additionally, they play an integral role in the global carbon cycle, which you can learn more about through GLOBE’s global carbon cycle activities.

The word plankton is derived from the Greek word “planktos”, which means drifter, since plankton drift at the whim of the ocean’s currents.  While they have almost limitless distribution across the world’s oceans, their vertical extent is limited to the sunlit layer of the water, known as the photic zone. Here they use sunlight to photosynthesize, converting carbon dioxide (CO2) into organic compounds and producing half the oxygen we breathe. With this action, plankton are as important as the trees and plants in making our planet habitable.

Schematic showing the photic zone. Image from Pearson Education.

In addition, by converting CO2 into organic compounds, plankton play both short term (centuries) and long term (geological time frames) roles in the global carbon cycle. When they die and sink to the ocean floor, they may be part of a long term sequestering of carbon as part of the ocean floor or become part of a carbon pump cycle that moves carbon throughout the oceans and helps manage atmospheric CO2.  The oceans take in CO2 at greater levels in colder waters near the poles. Because that cold water is also denser, it sinks and transfers the carbon to the deep ocean where it can circulate. Eventually, this carbon-rich deep water returns to the surface at upwelling regions where plankton consume it as part of their biological processes and then return it back to the depths in death.

While there is still much to be learned about plankton, scientists are finding evidence that these organisms are under significant threat.  Two changes are of particular concern: rising ocean temperatures and changing pH. Since plankton live at the ocean’s surface, they are particularly susceptible to temperature changes in the water and scientists have begun recording alterations in the distribution, abundance, and seasonality of plankton in both the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. In addition, increasing atmospheric concentrations of CO2 are affecting the ocean’s pH. As carbon dioxide (CO2) enters the sea surface, it dissolves in the water (H20) and forms a weak acid called carbonic acid. As atmospheric CO2 increases, more enters the sea and scientists are documenting increasing acidity in ocean water. Many zooplankton rely on calcium carbonates in the water to help build their structures and these minerals are less available in more acidic conditions.

A closeup view of plankton. Photo courtesy of Janis Steele

These changes occurring in the oceans will have profound consequences for the ecology of the whole planet.  Here aboard Llyr, we are participating in a citizen science campaign to monitor plankton.  We are using two simple tools to do these studies: a Secchi disk and a plankton net.

The Secchi disk is one of the earliest and simplest devices to study plankton in their environment. Because phytoplankton affect the turbidity, or clarity, of the water, an easy visual experiment can tell us a great deal. Invented in 1865 by Pietro Angelo Secchi, the latest version we’re using aboard Llyr is a weighted, white plastic disk attached to a length of rope marked in 50 cm intervals.  We lower the disk into the water and the depth at which is disappears is called the Secchi depth.  Not only are we recording the turbidity but also the depth to which phytoplankton can grow in the water column. Our data from these experiments in submitted to Plymouth Institute in England, where Dr. Richard Kirby has initiated a campaign to enlist seafarers in monitoring plankton around the world (See Ocean Drifters; A Secret World Beneath the Waves, R. Kirby, Firefly Books 2011).

Holding a secchi disk. Photo courtesy of Janis Steele

The second device we are using to study plankton is a plankton net. Charles Darwin used a plankton net during his famous voyage aboard the Beagle.   Our 200 micron net is sized for the collection of larger zooplankton. As we tow the net behind Llyr, zooplankton are strained from the water and washed in to the collector at the bottom of the net. We are then able to observe and photograph these creatures using Llyr’s microscope.  There are two types of zooplankton: the holozooplankton that spend their whole life cycle as plankton, and the merozooplankton, those creatures that spend just a part of their life cycle as plankton in larval stages, maturing to creatures that live on the sea bed, such as urchins, crabs, worms and mollusks.

A plankton net. Photo courtesy of Janis Steele.

Examining creatures collected from the net. Photo courtesy of Janis Steele.

Today, new and more sophisticated technologies are available to study plankton. It is even possible to observe them from space due to the fact that phytoplankton have photosynthetic and other pigments which color the water when they bloom!  Despite the importance of plankton and even though they live on the surface of the sea, there is still much more to learn about plankton, these tiny organisms that make life on Earth possible.

Suggested activity: While these studies are in the ocean, plankton are found in freshwater too.  In conjunction with GLOBE hydrology protocols, you can collect water samples to look under a microscope at the types and numbers of plankton. By continuing this experiment over many years, you can begin to learn of the relationship that Steele and McCutchen describe here.  If you’ve already examined plankton, we’d love to hear about it!  Leave a comment here or on our Facebook page, or send us an email to science@globe.gov.

The Maldives are a great location for such an experiment because during the months of November through March, the country experiences its dry season with respect to the monsoon, and pollutant heavy air can be seen traveling from thousands of kilometers away from countries like India and Pakistan.  Furthermore, the island nation has a low elevation and is extremely sensitive to changes in sea level rise.

A map of the Maldives. From Worldatlas.com

Through the research, Ramanathan and his colleagues discovered that these pollutants are primarily composed of black carbon soot that comes from the burning of fossil fuels and biomass.  With the longevity of the research, they were able to understand that there is a strong heating effect of these pollutants.   But black carbon soot affects more than air temperature – it destroys millions of tons of crops annually and causes human health concerns.  The good news is that this type of emission is easy to reduce due to the face that its lifespan in the atmosphere is short.

Sources of black carbon emission. From AGU.org

If these types of pollutants are reduced quickly, the long-term negative effects of climate change can be reduced by nearly 50% in the next 20-30 years.  With Ramanathan’s research, The Climate and Clean Air Coalition (CCAC) was established.  The CCAC is focusing on the reduction of short lived pollutants by nearly one third to protect and improve human health and agriculture.

And while the relationship between black carbon soot and warming is better understood, and has recently been presented by the International Global Atmospheric Chemistry Project, the affect the black carbon has on clouds and the type that form is still unknown.  Further research is necessary to understand the feedback between black carbon affected clouds and climate change.

Suggested activity: If you’re a GLOBE school in an area that sees seasonal fluctuations in air quality, you can perform your own research study to see the affect that air pollution has on your local temperature, cloud type and cloud cover.  Start by taking air temperature, cloud clover, cloud type and aerosol measurements and enter them into the GLOBE database.  Then as your database grows, start to examine the relationships that exist between the variables.  Then, be sure to tell us about it.  You can share your future research plans with us through a comment, email or on our Facebook Page.  For more information on Ramanathan’s research, watch this video.

-Jessica Mackaro

An intricate network of soil microorganisms From: Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CISRO).

The study, performed by scientists from the University of New Hampshire, the University of California-Davis and the Marine Biological Laboratory, examined how microorganisms in the soil respond to temperature changes.  By learning more about that process, scientists could then improve the prediction of how much carbon dioxide is released from the soil.

Microorganisms in the soil release carbon dioxide as a byproduct of how they utilize their food source.  There are two types of food sources: glucose, a simple food source that is release from plant roots, and phenol, a complex food source that comes from decomposing organic matter such as wood and leaves.  Under normal conditions, they release at least 10 times the amount of carbon dioxide that human activities do in a year through the breakdown of these two food sources.  For a perspective on what this amount means, take a look at the graph below, taken from a study from 2010.

Time series of global carbon emissions from fossil fuels. Image from EPA.

This dramatic amount of carbon dioxide is usually absorbed through the root uptake of trees.  But if the soil warms too much, then these microorganisms are not as efficient at breaking down their food, and thus release more carbon dioxide as they expend the energy.  They are then over-producing, and the trees and plants will not take up as much.  In the short term, it may lead to a positive feedback cycle – where more carbon dioxide is emitted contributing to the rising amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.

However, this same research showed that these microorganisms may have the once again become efficient with their food breakdown after many years of warmer soil temperatures.  After approximately 18 years, the community once again became efficient in their ability to break down food.  This may be due to one of the following things: a change in the community of microorganisms (i.e. the type of microorganism changes), a change in the available nutrients,  and/or species adaptation.

While GLOBE doesn’t have protocols to look directly at microorganisms in the soil, it does have protocols to examine soil temperature.  This is just as important, because soil temperature directly affects many things, such as the timing of Budburst, Green Up and Green Down.  The timing of the phenological processes is important because it informs farmers when to plant crops.   For these reasons, it is very valuable to collect soil temperature data and monitor its changes through the seasons and years.

Suggested activity: Have you collecting soil temperature data?  Did you participate in December’s Surface Temperature Field Campaign?  Have you seen any changes?  We’d love to hear about your experience!  Leave a comment, share with us on our Facebook page, or send us an email.  And make sure you enter the data you’re collecting into the GLOBE database!

-Jessica Mackaro

Scientists are well aware of the potential implications that climate has on these trees, what they aren’t aware of is the affect that the reduction in forest will have on the world’s ecosystems.   Trees act like giant lungs, taking in carbon dioxide and releasing oxygen.  Studies have shown that trees take in more than 50% of human-generated carbon dioxide and store it.   Therefore, if these big trees continue to die, there’s more carbon dioxide left in the atmosphere, which can lead to additional atmospheric warming.  Furthermore, if the trees are dead, they cannot provide the key nutrients, such as nitrogen or seeding, to the surrounding soil to allow the forest to re-establish itself after fire or windstorm.

Forest die-off can also affect things like surface moisture and climate classification.  Heat and drought affect each tree species differently, which can result in a long-term shift in the dominant species found in a location.  For example, a forest may become grassland.  This will also affect soil moisture, as there will be no tree canopy to intercept rainfall or prevent the exposure to harsh sun and wind.

But it goes further than that.  Trees provide homes to many different types of animal life, from mammals to birds and reptiles.  As the trees die, these animals are forced to look for a new habitat.   It is feared that as trees die, so will different species that rely on these old trees.

The GLOBE Program has protocols that can aide in the examination of how these forests are changing. Looking at land cover classification while taking air temperature and precipitation measurements can start the foundation for an exploration between climate change and land cover change.  The month of January features a repeat of the Climate and Land Cover Intensive Observing Period (IOP).  With that IOP, teachers and students are encouraged to classify their land cover as well as take photographs.  By keeping these records over the years, GLOBE schools can contribute to studies following forest mortality.

Suggested activity: Participate in the January Climate and Land Cover IOP by establishing or visiting your land cover site.  Submit your photographs and land cover classification to the GLOBE website.

-Jessica Mackaro

Surface temperature map of the United States, from the RUC analysis at 1800 UTC on 13 January 2013; Image courtesy of RAL Real-Time Weather Data

When we looked at the weather map, we were amazed to see such a strong temperature gradient, which is how quickly temperature changes over a given distance.  This was the result of a very strong cold front that moved across the country bringing chilling Arctic air into the heart of the U.S., where you can see some temperatures fell well below -17.8 °C (0 °F).  Ahead of the cold front, temperatures soared, however only until the cold front passed.  If you examine hourly observations from the Southeast U.S., you’ll find some dramatic temperature drops.  For example, in Memphis, TN, the temperature fell nearly 8°C (18°F) in only one hour and fifteen minutes.

Outside of the United States, there are many other countries experiencing extreme weather.  Thousands of people have had to evacuate their homes in Russia after a pipeline burst in the extreme and record cold and Jerusalem, Israel experienced a very rare snowfall last week.  Conversely, Australia is experiencing raging brush fires as the country is gripped by a record-breaking heat wave.  This heat wave has been so intense that road tar has melted and the Bureau of Meteorology had to add two new colors to its temperature maps.

Children play in front of the Dome on the Rock during the recent snowstorm in Israel; Photo from Reuters/Ammar Awad

A map from space showing hotspots from brushfires (red dots) in Tasmania; from NASA

While these are examples of weather extremes, they are not necessarily indicators of climate.  It is important to reiterate the difference between weather and climate, as these kinds of weather extremes often get people talking about how it relates to climate and climate change.  Weather is the current state of the atmosphere, the temperatures and weather systems that sweep through a nation over the course of a day or a week, while climate is the long-term average and trend of weather events over many years.  Thus, while these weather extremes are dramatic on both ends of the spectrum, they may not affect a location’s climate unless they occur repeatedly, for many years to come.  It is also important to realize that weather extremes are not uncommon; cold fronts often create sharp temperature gradients and weather patterns can set up to create heat waves or cold spells.  However these extremes may be occurring more frequently and at record-breaking levels due to climate change.

In order to document extreme weather and if it is occurring frequently enough to impact climate, it is important to collect data on a daily basis for many years.  Over time, these data help identify if any long-term trends are occurring.  The GLOBE Program sponsors the Great Global Investigation of Climate project to encourage GLOBE schools to collect regular, daily temperature and precipitation data for this very reason.  The data collection efforts of GLOBE schools help contribute valuable data to monitor weather and climate across the planet.  Just look at this example from Fayetteville High School in Arkansas.  The daily temperature observations of maximum temperature at their school over the past two weeks illustrate the warm up and then extreme cool down that occurred as the cold front passed on January 13th.   These kinds of weather data, recorded over long periods of time, are the key pieces of evidence needed to help decipher if these tales of weather extremes are leading us toward a change in climate.

Maximum daily air temperature (degrees C) recorded by Fayetteville High School in Arkansas between 1-14 January 2013.

Suggested activity: Have you been affected by this recent extreme weather?  Let us know about it by leaving a comment or sending us an email.  Also, use the recent extreme weather to develop and carryout a research topic, then email it to us at science@globe.gov.  And don’t forget to collect data for the Great Global Investigation of Climate, which repeats again in March!

- Jessica Mackaro and Sarah Tessendorf

This week I attended the 93rd Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society (AMS) in Austin, TX.  I started attending eight years ago as a senior undergraduate meteorology major at Millersville University.  That first year, I’ll admit, was very overwhelming – great minds from various expertises within the Earth Sciences came together to share ideas and present their recent research.  The meeting brings many opportunities for sharing: from WeatherFest, a collection of over 65 interactive science exhibits that is free to the community, to posters and formal presentations at the meeting venue.

Like the past few years, GLOBE sponsored a table at WeatherFest, where we met members of the Austin community – from local scout troops to teachers and students.  We explored with them how fun and easy GLOBE is, by engaging with Green Down and Surface Temperature focused activities.  We also shared calendars from the student art competition.  Everyone who stopped by the table loved how you, our GLOBE Students, represented climate through your art.  WeatherFest occurs the Sunday prior to each AMS meeting, and next year’s will be in Atlanta, GA, USA.  Check out this link to watch a video of images from this year’s WeatherFest, courtesy of Teresa Eastburn of UCAR’s SPARK Program.

Julie and I take a moment to take a picture before the doors to WeatherFest open

The Meeting officially kicked off on Monday, and I was able to present how GLOBE connects to the Next Generation Science Standards, which was timely as a new draft of the standards was released on Tuesday.  GLOBE itself connects so well to the Next Generation Science Standards , as student research projects touch on each of the three dimensions of the new standards.   The three dimensions, to be explained briefly, are Scientific and Engineering Practices, Crosscutting concepts, and Disciplinary Core Ideas.  As you’re aware, one of the key components of GLOBE is its inquiry-based, hands-on activities.  This aligns to Dimension 1 of the Standards.  To address the different cross-cutting concepts, Dimension 2 of The Standards, GLOBE Students and Teachers engage in data analysis and application to research projects.  Finally, basic GLOBE, the implementation of GLOBE protocols aligns to Dimension 3 – disciplinary core ideas.  By looking at even one project, such as the Oyster Gardening and Climate Change project from Trinity Lutheran School in Newport News, VA, USA, it is easy to make the connection.  Once the standards are finalized, we’ll be sure to feature a post or two dedicated to how GLOBE connects to them.

On Tuesday, GLOBE was presented again to the AMS audience by showing how GLOBE students are environmental stewards in their local communities.  Since the presentation was only limited to 12 minutes, I was only able to discuss two projects: one from students in the Czech Republic who were looking out for toads crossing a busy highway, and another from students in Pakistan who created fliers to pass out to the community in hopes to clean up and protect their local water source.  Everyone in attendance was impressed when they realized that students recognize problems, research these problems using GLOBE protocols and work to find a solution.  Also on Tuesday, one of our GLOBE Teachers, Mr. Peter Dorofy from the Burlington County Institute of Technology in New Jersey, received the American Meteorological Society’s K-12 Educator Award.  He attended the meeting too, and will be blogging about his experience at the science conference in the near future.

As the week came to a close, we feel confident that The GLOBE Program had been shared in many ways with this wide scientific audience.  I was able to meet scientists and educators who are able to bring amazing expertise to students and teachers alike. I have been able to reconnect with GLOBE partners, who are attending the meeting as representatives of their organization, as well as network with the local Austin community in hopes to recruit new GLOBE teachers and schools.  It is our hope that in future meetings, we can continue to present what you, our GLOBE Community, are doing.  Whether it be future results of another competition or presenting the latest way our students are environmental stewards, members of the American Meteorological Society are inspired by what you are doing.

Suggested activity: Students – Get together with your classmates and look around your community to find a local problem and develop a project to answer the question.  Then, submit it to us through the GLOBE Facebook Page or have your teacher submit it through the “Tell Us About It” link on their My Page on the GLOBE Website.Teachers – read through the latest draft of the Next Generation Science Standards and provide your feedback.   The draft will be open for comments until 29 January 2013.

A graphical representation of carbon dioxide variations. From Science Blogs

So I began to wonder, is global warming causing more droughts?  Or are more droughts leading to more global warming?  Which caused the other first (e.g., which came first—the chicken or the egg)?

While our understanding of the Earth System would imply that droughts alone have not caused global warming, it is now clear that they can further enhance it.  This is an example of a positive feedback loop in the Earth System.  A positive feedback means that one process occurs, causing a subsequent process to occur that results in an outcome that further enhances the first process, and the cycle amplifies and continues over time.  A negative feedback, however, would cause the opposite to happen where the subsequent process results in an outcome that counteracts or weakens the first process.

There are also examples of negative feedbacks in our Earth System.  Take for example when the Earth’s ocean surface temperature heats up, it causes more evaporation from the oceans.  This additional source of moisture into the atmosphere over the oceans can lead to more low-level marine clouds.  Low-level marine stratocumulus clouds are often very reflective of solar radiation, so more of these clouds can thus increase the Earth’s albedo (or solar radiation reflectivity) and thereby cool the ocean surface temperatures.

Another example of a positive feedback; the changing albedo when sea ice melts due to global warming. From Vancouver Observer

Don’t be fooled, however, by the terms positive and negative feedback, which may imply one is good and one is bad.  It is actually often the opposite; that the negative feedbacks are what produce balance in the Earth System, whereas the positive feedback loops can act like a runaway train.  Either way, most of these processes are completely natural; however, some can and are being influenced by human activity.  As responsible residents of this planet, we need to do our best to understand how our actions are affecting our home and try to prevent any runaway trains from occurring on our watch.

Suggested activity: Investigate the albedo of various surfaces near you in the GLOBE Surface Temperature Field Campaign and try to estimate if the surface cover changed, would it act as a positive or negative feedback in your local community.

-Sarah Tessendorf